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Showing posts from October, 2018

Can Zimbabwe`s finance ministry get out of its own way?

Zimbabwe Ministry of Finance Office Complex F or the outside observers, Zimbabwe’s economic environment is getting predictably unpredictable with each passing day. For a country that is seeking to woo, foreign investment, the recent actions by the monetary and fiscal authorities seem like a well-coordinated effort to do the exact opposite.  With virtually each action, the ministry of finance and the central bank officials increasingly appear to be a motley crew of amateurs experimenting with a loaded gun, leaving   nothing but a trail of destruction in their wake. The recent embarrassing debacle around the appointment of the controversial William Mutumanje, otherwise known as Acie Lumumba as the ministry of finance’s communications task force chair, and his subsequent sacking, as comical as it is, perhaps shows that Zimbabwe is not yet ready to be taken seriously in the global capital markets.  At a time when emerging markets themselves are in a st...

Back to familiar territory: Zim`s economic history starts rhyming again

People queuing outside a bank for cash outside a a bank in Zimbabwe`s capital, Harare Zimbabwe`s economic history does not necessarily repeat itself, but it often rhymes. The headwinds facing the economy are not new. In fact, that they are happening again in almost perfect congruence to the hyperinflation period is a very strong indictment on the political actors in particular and both the monetary and fiscal authorities in general. Cash shortages, a vibrant parallel market for foreign currency, long winding queues for fuel are a feature again. Heck, phrases like “price monitoring” and “profiteering retailers” are coming back into vogue. Zimbabwe has been here before, and the current sequence of events reads like a script from the same old playbook. Zimbabwe Stock Exchange Rally As a rule of thumb, whenever the Zimbabwe Stock Exchange goes on a supernormal rally, as if pumped on steroids, all is not well in the motherland. The local bourse has been rising, as pension f...

Mthuli Ncube: The convenient “fall guy” in waiting?

At its very core, Zimbabwe is battling neither a monetary or a fiscal problem. That this seemingly self-evident truth needs explanation is perhaps a sure sign of the deep hole the country finds itself in. Yet listening to the central bank governor, John Mangudya and finance minister Mthuli Ncube one would think that the panacea to all of Zimbabwe`s problems lies in tinkering with monetary and fiscal fundamentals. The Zimbabwean problem is a political one! Politics by nature is never for the faint-hearted. It is brutal, unforgiving and often, a very short-lived career, especially for “outsiders”. Zanu PF, Zimbabwe`s ruling party is an outfit caught between   embracing a   fresher liberal   identity, while holding on to its long held populist ideals, which appeal to a significant base of its supporters. Enter Mthuli Ncube! Balancing this liberal and populist dichotomy in the ruling party as an “outsider, will require nothing short of a tour de force from him. Ca...