Post-election Zimbabwe: Yes, its complicated

Winning the election was half the battle. Emmerson Mnangagwa now has to contend with internal party politics

If there ever was any doubt about the exact nature of the state Robert Mugabe - deposed in what has become known as a military assisted transition - back in November 2017, bequeathed us, then the events in the immediate aftermaths of the July 30 election, put paid to those lingering doubts. Zanu PF as a political formation is firmly in the unyielding grip of the military, and by implication, so is the state.

Events such as live bullets being fired on unarmed protesters, notwithstanding that the eyes of the world were fixated on the country, “lapses in command” resulting in the harassment of the very journalists the government is trying to persuade to push a favorable narrative of Zimbabwe externally, and reports of the army terrorizing citizens have played out for all to see. 

Never mind the blowback from these set of unfortunate events, occurring especially at a time when Mr Mnangagwa is trying to decouple himself from the repressive legacy of his predecessor, Robert Mugabe; Mr Mnangagwa insists that,” No democratic process is flawless....”

Be that as it may, Zimbabwe faces a worryingly uncertain future. What the elections could have provided, certainty, stability, credibility, a clear mandate, have all been somewhat negated, with the recent events. Instead, there are more questions than there are answers. Who exactly is calling the shots in the country? 

Is there a third force at play behind the throne? What will become of Zimbabwe’s economic reform agenda? Has Zanu PF shed off it’s old skin and kicked its old habits? All these are questions that need to be answered comprehensively, not with slick political rhetoric and the all too familiar, patronizing platitudes that politicians often employ. Actions, not words!

It remains to be seen what will become of opposition leader, Mr Nelson Chamisa’s challenge of the poll results. This however, appears to be the least of Mr Mnangagwa’s problems. Having hinted prior to the July 30 election of an apparent plot to impeach him, Mr Mnangagwa only managed to secure the presidency by a narrow 50.8%, while his party garnered a more than two thirds majority in the House of Assembly. Could an impeachment be brewing?

A more scary possibility, being talked about albeit in hushed tones, is that of a greater force behind the throne. Soldiers are deployed onto the streets armed with live ammunition, and the president-elect reacts with surprise, and offers to launch a commission of enquiry to examine the chain of events on that day. 

An opposition press conference with the international press is disrupted by the police, only for the presidential spokesperson to later apologize, citing a “lapse in command” - whatever that means – for the disturbance. Not only that, Simon Khaya Moyo, Zanu PF Secretary for Information, clearly acting under orders has to physically confront the riot police, paving way for the press conference to go on. Wicknell Chivayo, with a high profile corruption case involving alleged fraud against a state owned enterprise is arrested, and the president-elect appears to be the last person to be in the know. 

These events give some credence to the notion that a third force is actively acting in a manner that is independent and manifestly counterproductive to the image Mr Mnangagwa is trying to project. Inevitably, this has contributed to a dystopian post-election environment, regarding the future prospects of the country under Mr Mnangagwa’s leadership.

That is just the political side of things. Even more important however are the economic realities that the incoming administration has to contend with. A civil service wage bill spiraling out of control, what with salary increases for government wokers in the run up to elections, which are unclear as to how they will be sustained, and the foreign currency crisis that has plagued the local business environment are both existential challenges in Mr Mnangagwa’s in-tray. 

And  then of course are the usual economic problems that have become closely tethered to the Zimbabwe narrative; unemployment, cash shortages, corruption and low FDI investments. Just how much energies will be expended toward concretely addressing these problems is anybody’s guess.

Having preached the gospel of “economy before politics” on the campaign trail, Mr Mnangagwa faces a stern test on whether he will live up to this proposition. The messy reality he immediately faces is not only uniting his fractured party, splintered by differing allegiances, with the army seemingly having grabbed all the proverbial “levers of power “ both in government and in Zanu PF, but also working to ensure the whole nation coalesces around his broader vision of ensuring Zimbabwe becomes a middle income country by 2030. 

For now however, that road looks ominously littered with obstacles. He may have managed to thwart the threat presented by the opposition MDC-Alliance, but the threat from within his own camp, Zanu PF looks like it has been hardly contained. If anything, it has just been unshackled.