Carte Blanche with Perry

Harare Central Business District The recent announcement of the country`s official inflation data carries quite some far reaching ramifications for the local economy. Zimstat announced the annual inflation figure for October at 20.85%, far above the SADC region`s benchmark of 7%.  This is the highest inflation figure since the country dollarized in early 2009. In the 9 months to September 2018, inflation had averaged 3.58% according to Zimstat`s own data, with the RBZ forecasting that annual inflation for 2018 would end the year well below the 7% threshold. However, October alone saw inflation gaining by 15.46 percentage points, significantly overshooting the central bank`s targets. There has been widespread discontent over the authenticity of the data from Zimstat itself.  OK Zimbabwe recently reported an average internal rate of inflation of 12.2%, while the controversial Steve Hanke an economist at the Johns Hopkins University who tracks trouble...

Image Credit: Reuters Zimbabwe’s economy is bleeding, has been for a while, but the upcoming budget statement by finance minister Mthuli Ncube presents him with the opportunity to suture up the economic wounds. More importantly, this will be an opportunity to prove that he has the backbone to stand up for treasury’s independence and display its resolve in achieving long-term fiscal sustainability.  After all, that is the reason why he was headhunted by the Mnangagwa administration, in theory at least. The exact details of his coming on board as minister are not public but if there is any truth to rumours that he was initially hesitant, then he will have some considerable clout in pushing his agenda, to the extent that he had to be courted to accept the post. Events following his appointment as minister have been anything but smooth however. The seemingly never-ending contradictory statements from treasury and the central bank have all but contributed in creating warp...

Confederation of Zimbabwe Industries President, Busisa Moyo Reflecting on the meteoric rise of Sony Corporation shortly after its formation, co-founder Akio Morita wrote in his memoir Made in Japan: Akio Morita and Sony, “I believe one of the reasons we went through such a remarkable growth period was that we had this atmosphere of free discussion. We have never tried to stifle it.” It is worth mentioning that Sony was founded just after the end of the Second World War, against a backdrop of deep uncertainty, when Japan was starting to rebuilding its economy. Free discourse between Zimbabwe`s business sector and the government has broken down over the years. Numerous arrests, the hounding of business-people to the point of some even fleeing the country, and being branded as saboteurs has become something that local business-people are accustomed to.  These events hardly build trust and promote a healthy level of dialogue between government and the business community...

Zimbabwe Ministry of Finance Office Complex F or the outside observers, Zimbabwe’s economic environment is getting predictably unpredictable with each passing day. For a country that is seeking to woo, foreign investment, the recent actions by the monetary and fiscal authorities seem like a well-coordinated effort to do the exact opposite.  With virtually each action, the ministry of finance and the central bank officials increasingly appear to be a motley crew of amateurs experimenting with a loaded gun, leaving   nothing but a trail of destruction in their wake. The recent embarrassing debacle around the appointment of the controversial William Mutumanje, otherwise known as Acie Lumumba as the ministry of finance’s communications task force chair, and his subsequent sacking, as comical as it is, perhaps shows that Zimbabwe is not yet ready to be taken seriously in the global capital markets.  At a time when emerging markets themselves are in a st...

People queuing outside a bank for cash outside a a bank in Zimbabwe`s capital, Harare Zimbabwe`s economic history does not necessarily repeat itself, but it often rhymes. The headwinds facing the economy are not new. In fact, that they are happening again in almost perfect congruence to the hyperinflation period is a very strong indictment on the political actors in particular and both the monetary and fiscal authorities in general. Cash shortages, a vibrant parallel market for foreign currency, long winding queues for fuel are a feature again. Heck, phrases like “price monitoring” and “profiteering retailers” are coming back into vogue. Zimbabwe has been here before, and the current sequence of events reads like a script from the same old playbook. Zimbabwe Stock Exchange Rally As a rule of thumb, whenever the Zimbabwe Stock Exchange goes on a supernormal rally, as if pumped on steroids, all is not well in the motherland. The local bourse has been rising, as pension f...

At its very core, Zimbabwe is battling neither a monetary or a fiscal problem. That this seemingly self-evident truth needs explanation is perhaps a sure sign of the deep hole the country finds itself in. Yet listening to the central bank governor, John Mangudya and finance minister Mthuli Ncube one would think that the panacea to all of Zimbabwe`s problems lies in tinkering with monetary and fiscal fundamentals. The Zimbabwean problem is a political one! Politics by nature is never for the faint-hearted. It is brutal, unforgiving and often, a very short-lived career, especially for “outsiders”. Zanu PF, Zimbabwe`s ruling party is an outfit caught between   embracing a   fresher liberal   identity, while holding on to its long held populist ideals, which appeal to a significant base of its supporters. Enter Mthuli Ncube! Balancing this liberal and populist dichotomy in the ruling party as an “outsider, will require nothing short of a tour de force from him. Ca...

Winning the election was half the battle. Emmerson Mnangagwa now has to contend with internal party politics If there ever was any doubt about the exact nature of the state Robert Mugabe - deposed in what has become known as a military assisted transition - back in November 2017, bequeathed us, then the events in the immediate aftermaths of the July 30 election, put paid to those lingering doubts. Zanu PF as a political formation is firmly in the unyielding grip of the military, and by implication, so is the state. Events such as live bullets being fired on unarmed protesters, notwithstanding that the eyes of the world were fixated on the country, “lapses in command” resulting in the harassment of the very journalists the government is trying to persuade to push a favorable narrative of Zimbabwe externally, and reports of the army terrorizing citizens have played out for all to see.  Never mind the blowback from these set of unfortunate events, occurring especiall...